Originally Posted by
SalesServiceGuy
The numbers that stood out from the 2018 USAFACTS report:
Steve Ballmer commented:
"After we published our initial reports last year, I was asked by many people what my key conclusions were. My view is that each citizen must make their own conclusions guided by the facts and the numbers. This year, however, there were key things that stood out to me, surprised me, or were interesting in the context of trade-offs government can make, so I wanted to highlight some of them (all dollars inflation adjusted). Other people may be drawn by other numbers, so please read the reports in detail for yourself:"
Establishing justice:
Violent crime (aggravated assault, robbery, rape,murder and non-negligent manslaughter): Since 1980 when there were 597 incidents per 100,000 people,rates peaked in 1991 at 758, but then were cut in half to 362 by 2014 and moved slightly back up to 386 in 2016 (page 27).
Drug crime:
There were 324,489 people incarcerated in 2000 for drugs (0.12% of the US population), but that decreased to 289,200 in 2016,which was 0.09% of the US population (p. 27).
Incarceration:
2.2 million people are incarcerated in the US today, and that number climbed faster than population growth since 1980. Violent criminals represent 49% of the incarcerated population, partly because the average release time for violent crime rose from 3.2 years in 1995 to 4.2 years today. Drug offenders have decreased to 19% of the incarcerated population (p. 28).
Providing defense:
Active duty military: There are fewer Americans serving in active duty, down from 2.1M people in 1980 to 1.3M in 2016 with notable year-over-year changes in 2008 (up only 1.6% during the “troop surge”) and 2014 (down 3.2%) correlated with changes in Iraq and Afghanistan (p. 36-37).
Military equipment:
Military spending has declined since the height of the wars in 2010, but it’s interesting that we now spend more ($85B) on R&D,software, and electronics than we do on aircraft, ships, vehicles, ammunition, missiles, and gas ($75B)(p. 37).
Border security:
Border apprehensions are down over 80% since 2000 to 311,000, the number of border patrol agents has increased from 4,139 to 19,437 since 1992, and there are approximately 12.1M unauthorized immigrants currently living in the US (p. 40).
GDP:
GDP growth has averaged 2.7% annually since 1980 with some volatility. This is interesting to look at in the context of changes in interest rates,government spending, or tax policies. GDP per person rose from $31,724 in 1980 to $58,468 in 2017, averaging 1.7% annual growth since 1980. The average for the first 18 years was 2.2% while the average for the following 18 years until 2017 was 1.2%(p. 43-45).
Jobs:
A higher percentage of working age people (ages 16-64) (69%) have jobs compared to 1980. If the percentage had remained steady, 14.6M fewer people would be working today. The most significant job growth appeared in low-wage jobs in food preparation/service and personal care, and high-wage jobs in healthcare and business/finance(p. 45, 48, and 49).
Poverty:
Although the poverty rate fluctuated between 1980 and 2016, the official poverty rate today (which does not take into account many government transfers when calculating income) is 13% overall and 18% for children, roughly the same as in 1980. Overall, 36% of all single mothers are living in poverty, which is down from 43%, and 9% of all seniors, an improvement from 16% (p. 54).
• Income, taxes, transfers, and standard of living:
There was a decline from $38,000 in 2000 to $33,000 in 2016 for the minimum family income needed to reach the middle 20% of the income quintiles, while it currently takes $116,000 to get into the top 20%. Also, we saw an 11% increase in the average transfer (excluding Social Security and Medicare) to disadvantaged people (the bottom 20%)since 2000 to $11,731 today. The average amount spent on housing is $470 for the poorest 20% of Americans, $1,006 for the middle 20%, and $2,301 for the top 20%. (p. 51 and 53).
• Health and healthcare:
Obesity and diabetes rates have been rapidly increasing since 2000. Smoking rates have decreased. The average age of death in 2016 was 72.9, up from 72.3 in 1999, and life expectancy for those born in 2015 is 78.8 years, up from 73.7 in 1980. Spending on healthcare in the US(private, government, and out-of-pocket spending for healthcare expenses like drugs, hospitals, doctors,and health insurance administration) is up to $9,578 per person (16.6% of GDP), an increase of 56% since 2000. On average $1,100 of that is out of citizens’own pockets. Regarding cost of care, Medicaid spending per person has been flat since 1999,Medicare spending per person has been flat since 2009, while the cost of a hospital stay on average isup 35% from 2000 to $11,401 (p. 57-58).
Education:
High school graduation rates are up to 82% from 71% in 1980, while 8th grade reading and math proficiency rates are at 36% and 34%,and student teacher ratios are down to 16:1 from 19:1 in 1980 (p. 62).
Federal deficits:
Our government has operated at a deficit every year since 1980 other than 1997-2001 and 2007 (all of which came right before economic slowdowns).
Looking at taxes as a possible way to address deficits, payroll taxes generate 34% of federal revenue compared to income taxes at 47%. The top 20% of the population pay less payroll tax than income tax,while the other 80% pay more payroll taxes(directly and through their employers) than income tax.
Looking to spending as a possible way to address deficits, obligations for Social Security and Medicare, federal pensions, and interest payments account for 36.2% of combined federal,state, and local spending (p. 13 and 17).
Population changes also can affect deficits, as a higher population means more workers paying taxes, while more elderly people means more benefits to be paid. Elderly Americans have increased to 15% of the population from 11% in 1980. Overall, the population grew by 2.3 million people in 2016 – a combination of 1.1M new immigrants, 3.9M births, and 2.7M deaths (p. 10).
Mobility and key factors by race:
On average,the probability that a child, whose parents were in the bottom 20% of income, would themselves move out of the bottom 20% has been 83% for Asians, 75% for Hispanics, 71% for Whites, and 63% for Blacks. Also, the percent of 16 to 64-year olds working is 74% for Whites, 68% for Hispanics, 65% for Asians, and 60% for Blacks.Finally, the percentages of births from unmarried women are 70% for Blacks, 53% for Hispanics,29% for Whites, and 12% for Asians.
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