Expert COVID Prediction of 50K Hospitalizations in NY by April 1 Turned Out To Be 400% Too HighAs coronavirus models go, the one put forth by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, or IHME, has been one of the more optimistic ones.
According to
The Washington Post, the model predicted 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the United States lower than most models and lower than the White House
estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
Even though it may be conservative, however, the IHME model might not have been conservative enough.
Take
New York, the epicenter of the disease. According to the IHME model, the state would have needed 50,962 hospital beds on April 1, on the way to peak usage April 9. On that day, it would need 76,130 hospital beds.
Now, New York isnt in particularly good shape when it comes to coronavirus, recording at least 1,867 deaths in New York City alone as of Saturday morning, according to
Johns Hopkins University data.
However, the IHME models prediction of how many people would be hospitalized in the state by April 1 was much higher than what the actual number ended up being.
The model found that on April 1, New York would need 50,962 beds.
Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson noted that projection was far off it was 400 percent too high, in fact.
The actual number as of April 1 was 12,226, according to
WROC-TV. A total of 3,022 intensive care beds were needed, far short of the 10,050 predicted by the model.
While there could be an undercount given the nature of the disease and of testing, its unlikely that number has been undercounted by over 37,000 hospital beds total and over 7,000
ICU beds.
Keep in mind that this also isnt like the much-cited
Imperial College study out of the United Kingdom, which assumed a worst-case scenario where nothing was done and deaths topped 1 million people.
The IHME model assumes every state will quickly impose stay-at-home orders, which some states, including Alabama and Missouri, have yet to do, The Post reported. It also assumes the entire country will maintain these restrictions until summer.
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