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  1. #581
    IT Manager 10,000+ Posts bsm2's Avatar
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil B. View Post
    Expert COVID Prediction of 50K Hospitalizations in NY by April 1 Turned Out To Be 400% Too High

    As coronavirus models go, the one put forth by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, or IHME, has been one of the more optimistic ones.
    According to The Washington Post, the model predicted 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the United States — lower than most models and lower than the White House estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

    Even though it may be conservative, however, the IHME model might not have been conservative enough.
    Take New York, the epicenter of the disease. According to the IHME model, the state would have needed 50,962 hospital beds on April 1, on the way to peak usage April 9. On that day, it would need 76,130 hospital beds.
    Now, New York isn’t in particularly good shape when it comes to coronavirus, recording at least 1,867 deaths in New York City alone as of Saturday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
    However, the IHME model’s prediction of how many people would be hospitalized in the state by April 1 was much higher than what the actual number ended up being.


    The model found that on April 1, New York would need 50,962 beds.
    Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson noted that projection was far off — it was 400 percent too high, in fact.
    This is the @IMHE_UW model for #Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? https://t.co/zdRwaS4UJr pic.twitter.com/bRroolmKgw
    — Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 1, 2020
    The actual number as of April 1 was 12,226, according to WROC-TV. A total of 3,022 intensive care beds were needed, far short of the 10,050 predicted by the model.
    While there could be an undercount given the nature of the disease and of testing, it’s unlikely that number has been undercounted by over 37,000 hospital beds total and over 7,000 ICU beds.

    Keep in mind that this also isn’t like the much-cited Imperial College study out of the United Kingdom, which assumed a worst-case scenario where nothing was done and deaths topped 1 million people.
    “The IHME model assumes every state will quickly impose stay-at-home orders, which some states, including Alabama and Missouri, have yet to do,” The Post reported. “It also assumes the entire country will maintain these restrictions until summer.”
    An if the modeling is WRONG?
    Yep your SCREWED!

  2. #582
    Retired 10,000+ Posts
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by bsm2 View Post
    An if the modeling is WRONG?
    Yep your SCREWED!
    You obviously did not read the post, as usual. It already is wrong but in the best way. The model predicted 4 to 5 times the deaths in You Dork, I mean New York as the actual numbers as of April 1, 2020. The only ones who are going to be screwed are you liberal TDS suffering Democrats. Oh wait a minute, you already are.

  3. #583
    IT Manager 10,000+ Posts bsm2's Avatar
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by slimslob View Post
    You obviously did not read the post, as usual. It already is wrong but in the best way. The model predicted 4 to 5 times the deaths in You Dork, I mean New York as the actual numbers as of April 1, 2020. The only ones who are going to be screwed are you liberal TDS suffering Democrats. Oh wait a minute, you already are.
    Just like the Trump Model of the Hurricane
    Remember Alabama
    Or maybe you can use the Trump Model in Puerto Rico
    You know the one's with over 3 thousand death's due to the Hurricane.
    Everyone wishes for a lower number but only time will tell.
    It's not even close to being over. New York is only first Buddy

  4. #584
    Service Manager 5,000+ Posts
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    The Premier ( = US Governor) of Nova Scotia was peeved at resident ignoring the stay at home order. He told residents in a public broadcast "to stay the blazes home!"

    Saying, 'Stay the blazes home' — we all know what he's getting at, but it also makes everybody laugh and doesn't just make you feel like you're being yelled at."

    A few songs and memes have since been created

    YouTube


    https://twitter.com/AdamNFaber/statu...emes-1.5522068

  5. #585
    Senior Tech. 2,500+ Posts NeoMatrix's Avatar
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by allan View Post
    What i posted i found distasteful does not make it any less true.
    Reason i decided to delete most of that post.
    Can i ask you to do the same?
    I sense an air of caution in your text. Hence you feel there my be repercussions from locals if you speak to frank in an open forum.

    We could use a few more people like Julian Assange, Edward Snowden.

    Fear is mostly a lack of knowledge. It is a self choice to worry or not to worry. If you have prior knowledge it can lessen the fear as it allows a person to prepare.

    Speak out in the open... Share those troubling URL's so that others can make informed choices an prepare for themselves.

    Trust me. A snake in the grass is fearful of making the herd stampede.
    Last edited by NeoMatrix; 04-05-2020 at 01:26 AM.
    Inauguration to the "AI cancel-culture" fraternity 1997...
    •••••• •••[§]• |N | € | o | M | Δ | t | π | ‘ | x | •[§]••• ••••••

  6. #586
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus


  7. #587
    Service Manager 5,000+ Posts
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Step aboard the US Comfort Medical ship now stationed off New York

    YouTube

  8. #588
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  9. #589
    Service Manager 1,000+ Posts
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by slimslob View Post
    I try to avoid Google search as much as possible. They politicize their results far too often. My default search engine is Yahoo and my backup is DuckDuckGo.
    Startpage.com is good too. I was at one time called ixquick.com.

  10. #590
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    Re: Latest on the Corona Virus


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