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This is important: When SSG makes a promise or a guarantee, you should bet the opposite. He was wrong on masks. Wrong on Covid. And he's wrong on inflation. Bless his heart, politics and predictions just isn't his thing.
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White House quietly signals inflationary run could last years
White House is sending mixed messages on the United States's post-pandemic inflationary run, with quiet signals suggesting the period might last years longer than administration officials have publicly indicated.
The Consumer Price Index report for May published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that year-over-year inflation jumped 5.4%, marking three straight months of increases and the single-largest increase since the Great Recession of 2008.
Still, the White House's Council of Economic Advisers noted roughly 60% of that increase could be attributed to auto industry demand, exacerbated by severe semiconductor shortages.
The Biden administration previously identified semiconductors as one of four areas with major supply chain deficiencies. Yet, Sameera Fazili, deputy director of Biden's National Economic Council, told reporters in June inflation caused by semiconductor supply chain issues would not last long.
We fully expect these bottlenecks to be temporary in nature and to resolve themselves over the next few weeks," she said. "These are good problems to be having. Demand came back much quicker than even companies expected
He added that "the long-term answer to this issue" is large-scale investments in domestic semiconductor production, such as the $50 billion investment President Joe Biden pledged in June.
Intel — the world's largest semiconductor producer in terms of total sales in Q1 of 2021 — doesn't currently manufacture the chips that run automotive subsystems, but pledged in April to open up its manufacturing facilities to coordinate with other companies producing auto-industry semiconductors to close those bottlenecks, a company spokesperson told the Washington Examiner.
The company additionally began a $20 billion construction on new semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Arizona this past spring.
"We have been looking at ways to help automakers with component shortages in the near term by leveraging our supply chain partnerships," the spokesperson said in a statement. "And we are looking at collaborating with automotive chip designers on future fabrication plans."
Still, a semiconductor engineer at Intel told the Washington Examiner it would likely take at least a year for production ramp up to levels capable of meeting post-pandemic auto demands.
According to the engineer, who has "visibility" on the company's overall semiconductor production and was granted anonymity by the Washington Examiner to speak freely on the issue, Intel missed its chip commitments for Q2 by "some percentage" and is currently anticipating a "short miss" for Q3.
"We don't have a clear plan of resolving that," the engineer continued. "Demand is so high."
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That engineer added that the new Arizona investments won't alleviate the auto-industry problems anytime soon.
"We're building this big fab we announced in Arizona. That's going to add a couple million square feet to our fab there, and we're constantly building in Oregon. But, I think the timeline to be getting new tools on to expand our capacity is a couple of quarters," the engineer explained. "So, I would say our capacity isn't probably going to be able to meet customers' demand for something like a year to two years."
That two-year time frame appears to match the total inflationary period lifespan hinted at in a recent white paper quietly published by CEA Chairwoman Cecilia Rouse and economists Jeffery Zhang and Ernie Tedeschi on July 6.
The article titled "Historical Parallels to Today's Inflationary Episode" that, unlike many administration publications, was not disseminated through the White House's press lists, suggests the past inflationary period that most resembles our current run is the nearly three-year episode that followed World War II.
The article does note that "no single historical episode is a perfect template for current events" but did eventually conclude that "the inflationary period after World War II is likely a better comparison for the current economic situation than the 1970s and suggests that inflation could quickly decline once supply chains are fully online and pent-up demand levels off."
The White House sent a much more visible signal on inflation Tuesday when former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers met with Deese and Rouse at the White House.
ummers has heartily criticized much of Biden's legislative agenda, including the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and both of his infrastructure proposals. He argues those spending levels, coupled with the Federal Reserve Board's maintained zero-percent interest rates, will bring on rampant inflation.
The White House previously shrugged off his critiques.
Jason Furman, former CEA chairman for former President Barack Obama, spelled out a massive inflation warning on Twitter by noting a "massive divergence of inflation between the U.S. and Euro area right now."
Furman admitted part of the gap could be accounted for the different rates the U.S. and Eurozone reopened but claimed the phenomenon "says a lot more is going on than just pandemic-related shortages and quirks."
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Amtrak is betting big on a return of ridership.
The nation’s passenger railroad wants to replace its nearly half-century-old fleet with state-of-the-art trains that can operate on electricity or diesel fuel. It plans to spend $7.3 billion to buy 83 trains made by Siemens, with options to buy more if ridership increases. Funding must still be approved by Congress, but William Flynn, Amtrak's CEO, says he's confident it will happen.
If it doesn't, then Amtrak will finance the trains and repay its debt with money from state train services and passenger fares.
The more efficient trains, which will be built in California, are scheduled to start running in 2024. They will have more comfortable seating, better ventilation systems, power outlets and USB ports, Wi-Fi and panoramic windows. Many can run on either diesel fuel or battery power when needed.
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