Let the truth be known

[bsm2]

Re: Let the truth be known

[bsm2]

Re: Let the truth be known

[D_L_P]

Re: Let the truth be known

Do you know how many "peer" reviewed studies have been wrong throughout history? You have to learn to think for yourself and do the research.



Article:

Science is hard. If you want to make a new discovery, you not only have to observe an effect, test your hypothesis, have it peer-reviewed and published - your idea also has to stand up to rigorous independent testing.

That's called the scientific method, and it's how we attempt to eliminate most flukes and false positives from published research.
But, as the latest episode of Veritasium explains, despite this lengthy process, a lot of peer-reviewed research out there is actually wrong, and it highlights a serious problem in the way we do science.
So what's going on? A lot of it comes down to one problem: data can't speak for itself, and always has to be interpreted by someone. And unfortunately, humans are an unpredictable variable.
Take this 2011 paper published in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology called "Feeling the future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect," for example.
In that study, researchers said they'd found evidence that humans could predict the future... all based on the fact that when asked to pick which of two curtains would have an image behind it, participants picked the right answer 53 percent of the time.
The authors claimed that if it was just random chance, the number of correct guesses would have been 50 percent.

That sounds pretty bogus, but here's the thing - the study was statistically "significant", which means that researchers crunched the numbers and got a p value less than 0.05. In other words, there was less than a 5 percent chance that they got that result randomly.
For decades, getting a p > 0.05 score has been the be-all-and-end-all of determining the worth of a result, and that one number generally determines whether a study is worthy of being published or not.
But as we've mentioned before, this is incredibly problematic, and not only produces a whole lot of false positives, it also makes data subject to p-hacking - which is when results are tweaked slightly until the researchers get a significant result.
We'll let Derek talk you through this in the video above, because it's pretty complicated but important stuff, and it's definitely worth investigating more closely.
But the important thing to know here is that most scientists aren't doing this maliciously - a lot of these false results are a symptom of the system: the only way to get jobs is to publish papers, and you don't publish papers with non-significant or replicated results.
The good news is that many scientists now recognise that there's a reproducibility crisis in science, and are actively looking for ways to change the publication process and make it more accurate and transparent.
We're looking forward to seeing what happens next, because if there's one thing we need, it's a scientific model we can rely on.

Sure, peer reviewed papers get recalled. If this paper gets proved wrong, it will be their reasons why the economy does better under Democratic presidents. That the economy does better is an objective fact. They were only exploring the reasons why.

"For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why."

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20140913

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

Sure, peer reviewed papers get recalled. If this paper gets proved wrong, it will be their reasons why the economy does better under Democratic presidents. That the economy does better is an objective fact. They were only exploring the reasons why.

"For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why."

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Uh huh. Then explain to me how all the economic experts were so wrong about the Trump economy? They all said that if Trump was elected that the economy would crash. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The economy took off like a rocket under Trump. Fact.

[Copier Addict]

Re: Let the truth be known

In other words, you're a blind witness to anyone that holds a PhD?

In actual words, you are certainly a slave to the straw man.

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

In actual words, you are certainly a slave to the straw man.

You sound like a broken record. Your reply to most everything is:


- Russian disinformation
- Strawman

and

- brianwashed by Fox News.

You are very peidictable and that makes you VERY BORING. YAWN.

[Copier Addict]

Re: Let the truth be known

You sound like a broken record. Your reply to most everything is:


- Russian disinformation
- Strawman

and

- brianwashed by Fox News.

You are very peidictable and that makes you VERY BORING. YAWN.

Maybe you are unaware what a straw man argument is. You took DLP's statement about listen to someone with an economics PhD and turned it into him doing everything someone with a PhD says. There, now you know

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

Maybe you are unaware what a straw man argument is. You took DLP's statement about listen to someone with an economics PhD and turned it into him doing everything someone with a PhD says. There, now you know

Like most liberals he used a peer reviewed study to shut down honest debate because we mere simpletons should never question the so-called experts. You guys are so predictable and I find y'all to be very boring. You have no thoughts of your own. B-O-R-I-N-G.

[Copier Addict]

Re: Let the truth be known

Like most liberals he used a peer reviewed study to shut down honest debate because we mere simpletons should never question the so-called experts. You guys are so predictable and I find y'all to be very boring. You have no thoughts of your own. B-O-R-I-N-G.

No offense, but you wouldn't know honest debate if it grabbed you by the arm and gave you a shake. Lol.
You amigos ask for sources and then attempt to discredit the one who posts it

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

No offense, but you wouldn't know honest debate if it grabbed you by the arm and gave you a shake. Lol.
You amigos ask for sources and then attempt to discredit the one who posts it

Show me where I asked for a source? That is a STRAWMAN argument. You're the biggest victim that I've ever spoken to.

[D_L_P]

Re: Let the truth be known

Uh huh. Then explain to me how all the economic experts were so wrong about the Trump economy? They all said that if Trump was elected that the economy would crash. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The economy took off like a rocket under Trump. Fact.

By "experts" you mean the entertainment industry?

The peer review source shows the economy does better under dems, they asked why. They made no predictions.

And the current state of the economy is due to Trump's awful handling of the pandemic.

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

By "experts" you mean the entertainment industry?

The peer review source shows the economy does better under dems, they asked why. They made no predictions.

And the current state of the economy is due to Trump's awful handling of the pandemic.

I asked you earlier. What country are you from?

[Copier Addict]

Re: Let the truth be known

Show me where I asked for a source? That is a STRAWMAN argument. You're the biggest victim that I've ever spoken to.

How on earth did I become a victim?

Just because I don't buy into your lame attempts at discussion?

[SalesServiceGuy]

Re: Let the truth be known

Uh huh. Then explain to me how all the economic experts were so wrong about the Trump economy? They all said that if Trump was elected that the economy would crash. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The economy took off like a rocket under Trump. Fact.

... Trump juiced the economy by taking on massive debt and by giving taxes breaks to the wealthy during a period of high prosperity.

The USA and its future generations will pay for his near sighted achievements for the next decade.

[BillyCarpenter]

Re: Let the truth be known

... Trump juiced the economy by taking on massive debt and by giving taxes breaks to the wealthy during a period of high prosperity.

Finally we agree on something. By lowering the massive tax burden on corporations and cutting restrictive regulation, it actually "juices" the economy.